CREED LightTracker: New Data Shows Residential LED Market Share Continues to Grow Amid Uncertainty

The residential lighting market has long operated in an uncertain environment, with shifts in the regulatory environment occurring on top of rapid adoption of LED technologies. The COVID-19 pandemic plus the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) actions last fall to roll back lightbulb efficiency standards and the resulting legal challenges have only added to that uncertainty. Nonetheless, LEDs continued to grow as a share of U.S. lamp sales in 2019.

A CREED LightTracker update presenting lighting sales data analysis from 2019 and additional insight into these trends is available at https://www.CREEDLightTracker.com/updates/.

The COVID-19 pandemic will affect LED market shares in 2020 and onward, although it is too early to fully assess its impact. One LED-only manufacturer estimated that the combined effects of shifts in consumer buying patterns and delays in factory shipments from China could reduce their sales by as much as 75% through September. Scott Dimetrosky, president of Apex Analytics noted that, “A three-quarters reduction in sales may not be representative of the market as a whole – larger and less specialized manufacturers may be better positioned to adapt supply chains and distribution channels – but it signifies that the pandemic will have a significant impact on 2020 LED sales.”

The pandemic comes on the heels of a year in which LED market share continued to grow. The Consortium for Retail Energy Efficiency Data (CREED) LightTracker recently completed analysis of 2019 data. The data show that LED market share grew to 60% in 2019 across all retail channels and lamp styles. As it had in 2018, the growth in LED share in 2019 came at the expense of halogen and incandescent lamps. In prior years, growth in LED share had primarily come at the expensive of CFLs (see attached image).

LED market share growth in 2019 was particularly notable among candelabra and globe lamp styles. LEDs made up a majority of sales for both of these decorative lamp styles in 2019, with the LED market share of candelabra bulbs more than doubling since 2018. “Candelabra and globe bulbs have traditionally lagged other bulb types in terms of LED adoption,” Dimetrosky said, “LED market share growth in those areas is an important step in shifting the lighting market to efficient options.”

As LED market shares grew in 2019, the DOE’s efforts to roll-back lightbulb efficiency standards increased the uncertainty in the marketplace. Last September, DOE issued a Final Rule with the effect that efficiency standards would not apply to a variety of reflector, decorative, and specialty lightbulbs. DOE also argued that more stringent lightbulb standards set to take effect in 2020 did not apply.

Two groups have filed lawsuits seeking to reverse DOE’s Final Rule. The first is made up of a group of environmental organizations, led by the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC). The second includes the attorneys general of 15 states, the District of Columbia, and the City of New York. Briefs in both lawsuits are due in June 2020.

Despite all of this uncertainty, residential lighting improvements remain an important source of energy savings for U.S. homes and the utilities and other organizations that promote energy efficiency.

About CREED LightTracker

In order to solve a problem plaguing the energy efficiency industry for many years, in 2012 Apex Analytics created the Consortium for Retail Energy Efficiency Data (CREED). CREED serves as a consortium of program administrators, retailers, and manufacturers working together to collect the necessary data to better plan and evaluate energy efficiency programs. LightTracker is the first initiative of CREED, focusing on acquiring full-category lighting data, including incandescent, halogen, CFL, and LED bulb types, for all distribution channels and for the entire U.S. As a consortium, CREED speaks as one voice for the program administrators nationwide when requesting, collecting and reporting on the sales data needed by the energy efficiency community.

CREED currently has contracts with major utilities to develop a second initiative that will help monitor Commercial and Industrial energy efficient lighting sales. This initiative is working to obtain point of sale data from electrical distributors to foster better incentive programs from utilities. Over the last five years CREED LightTracker, has become the de facto source for residential lighting sales reporting and is used by utilities from California to Massachusetts.

Additional 2019 sales data findings and market and policy analysis are available at https://www.CREEDLightTracker.com/updates/. For more detailed analysis and recommendations targeted to your service area and program needs, contact Scott Dimetrosky at (303) 590-9888 x101, or email scottd@apexanalyticsllc.com.